> FOLLOW THE MONEY

Capital keeps flowing in even as quality deteriorates. The divergence is the story.

⚠ ALL RETURNS ARE SELF-REPORTED BY GP MARKS — NOT AUDITED, NOT MARK-TO-MARKET

$0B
Peak Fundraising
2023 — while exits collapsed
0%
DPI (Decade Low)
Distributions as % of NAV
0.0 yrs
Avg Hold Period
Near 20-year high
0
Unsold Companies
$3.6T in stuck value

PE FUNDRAISING ($B BY YEAR)

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PRIVATE CREDIT FUNDRAISING ($B BY YEAR)

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THE DIVERGENCE: MONEY IN vs QUALITY OUT

MONEY FLOWING IN

PE fundraising: $400B → $841B (2015-2023)

Private credit AUM: $200B → $2T (10x in 15 years)

BDC AUM: $127B → $503B (4x in 5 years)

Insurance allocations: 7% → 21% of private AUM

QUALITY DETERIORATING

Exits collapsed: 1,210 → 323 (2021-2023)

PIK rate: 5% → 12.5%

Default rate: 1.5% → 6.4% (shadow)

DPI: 25% → 9% (decade low)

EXIT COUNT BY YEAR

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Peak: 1,210 exits in 2021. Collapsed to 323 in 2023. IPO exits dropped from 21% to 2-3%.

DPI — DISTRIBUTIONS AS % OF NAV

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Decade low. For every dollar committed to 2018-2021 vintages, LPs got 10-30 cents back.

VINTAGE RETURNS HEATMAP

⚠ ACCORDING TO THEIR MARKS — self-reported GP valuations, not audited

Click a vintage year to filter fund report cards below ↓

VintageIRRMultipleDPIFundVisual
2009+18.5%2.10x1.80x—
2010+16.2%1.90x1.70x—
2011+15.8%1.85x1.60x—
2012+15%1.80x1.50x—
2013+14.2%1.70x1.30x—
2014+13.5%1.65x1.20x—
2015+12%1.55x0.90x—
2016+11%1.50x0.80x—
2017+12%1.45x0.60x—
2018+10.5%1.40x0.50x—
2019+8%1.30x0.30x—
2020+6.5%1.20x0.20x—
2021+3%1.10x0.10x—
2022-1.6%0.99x0.05xThoma Bravo XV
Strong (>14%) Good (10-14%) Weak (5-10%) Poor (0-5%) Underwater (<0%)

FUND REPORT CARDS

⚠ ALL RETURNS ARE SELF-REPORTED BY GP MARKS — NOT AUDITED, NOT MARK-TO-MARKET

Sort by:

18 funds shown

THE BUBBLE TIMELINE

Innovation2009-2015Entry: 8-10x

Genuine value. Post-GFC vintages bought distressed assets cheap.

PE outperformed public markets by meaningful margins

Boom2016-2019Entry: 10-11.5x

Money floods in. Standards drop. Multiples climb.

Fundraising surged from $400B to $735B. Secondary buyouts = 30-40% of exits.

Euphoria2020-2022Entry: 12x+

Peak fundraising, peak multiples, peak delusion.

$800B+ fundraising. 'Safer than IG bonds.' Citrix $16.5B LBO. 1,210 exits (2021).

Denial2023-2025Entry: 11.8x (record)

Exits collapse. DPI at decade low. PIK surges. Record bankruptcies.

323 exits (2023). 11% DPI. 54% of large bankruptcies PE-backed. Ares CEO: 'odd and frustrating.'

Panic Begins2025-2026Entry: FallingWE ARE HERE

Music stops. Blue Owl crisis. Software meltdown. Redemption gates.

Blue Owl -50%. $2.9B redemption requests in single quarter (+200%). Marathon warns 15% default rate.